Defence futures: how to keep ahead in a fast-evolving era

Sagentia Defence’s Managing Director, Tom Rasmussen, outlines three critical factors for developing and delivering cutting-edge defence capabilities.

Navigating the technological complexity of future military threats and finding ways to counter them is a critical priority for defence. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s recent announcement that defence spending will increase to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027 reinforces this point. But it’s not easy for large organisations to innovate with the necessary speed, precision, and agility. What’s more, traditional players in defence can be confined by the boundaries of context.

The UK Government says it’s looking to “accelerate the adoption of cutting-edge capabilities that are vital to retain a decisive edge as threats rapidly evolve”. Doing so requires more streamlined processes, a broader frame of reference, and deeper science and technology expertise. That’s why Sagentia Defence advocates expert collaboration and robust strategies for R&D acceleration coupled with targeted technological simulation. These three approaches help defence organisations remain competitive and avoid strategic surprise.

1. Collaborate: enhance defence insights with cross-sector expertise

Blending defence sector knowledge with wider science, engineering, and technology capabilities is fundamental to success. As defence leaders increasingly look beyond generation after next (GAN) timeframes, the ability to pinpoint new developments which hold promise for defence applications is key. It’s about analysing future technologies – some of which will originate in different sectors – then driving the maturation of those that hold promise. This is best achieved through strategic collaborations which draw on a wide range of specialist expertise, directing it towards clearly defined end goals.

The UK’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) took this approach with a scoping exercise for its Defence Science and Technology Futures (DSTF) Programme. Sagentia Defence led a consortium of six companies to identify and investigate emerging areas which hold game-changing potential for 15 beyond-GAN defence concepts. These concepts were then progressed on behalf of Dstl by consortium members holding specialist R&D and cost engineering capabilities. With expert input from scientists and engineers in relevant fields, we were quickly able to develop and mature new ideas for detailed consideration by defence leaders. Find out more about the project here.

2. Accelerate: use roadmapping to achieve future visions faster

Long-term defence planning is hard. Factors such as the rise of hybrid warfare and the speed of modern technological progress compound the challenge. To drive progress, leaders need clarity of focus so they can make effective use of resources and minimise risks such as technical obsolescence. Technology roadmapping is a useful technique. It plots a route to the future vision while allowing for ‘unknown unknowns’ that may be encountered on the journey.

Sagentia Defence previously assisted Dstl with a roadmapping project for Future Beyond Line of Sight Communication. An initial assessment of various communications technologies underpinned our recommendations on how to enhance solutions’ capacity, availability and security to meet future needs. The next phase of work centred on concept analysis, describing how technology innovation opportunities could be further defined and prioritised. More details are available here and we also have a dedicated roadmapping whitepaper available for download.

3. Simulate: prepare for futuristic scenarios and needs

An enduring challenge for GAN or beyond-GAN innovation is the lack of certainty over what will be possible or necessary in the future. A high degree of experimentation is needed so new ideas can be properly explored without being hindered by convention or the limitations of existing technologies and capabilities. This requires a prototype warfare mindset, where R&D teams work with speed and urgency, embracing failure as part of the learning process.

While some experimentation involves physical kit, gaming-style simulations on digital platforms can be quicker and more effective in many circumstances. Increasingly, the question asked during these exercises is a broad ‘can we use this?’ rather than ‘how do we use this?’. The goal is to identify technologies which hold the greatest potential before more detailed and resource-intensive development and assessment begins.

Right now, a key area of focus is autonomous technologies, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and ground robots. With use expected to escalate and become more sophisticated, simulation plays a vital role in development. Sagentia Defence has used simulation to support several projects for the multi-domain integration (MDI) initiative within the Ministry of Defence (MOD). These include the development of computer models to verify and validate robotic autonomous systems (RAS) for critical use cases including theatre entry, suppression of enemy air defence, anti-submarine warfare, and non-combatant evacuation.

Address future challenges now

Expert evaluation of risks and opportunities is vital to inform the numerous strategic decisions facing large defence organisations today. Sagentia Defence is here to support the process with our deep and extensive sector knowledge. We also collaborate with the wider network of Sagentia consultancy practices, giving us access to science and technology experts whose experience spans medical, aviation, consumer, food and beverage, energy, and industrial markets. Leveraging this cross-sector expertise unlocks alternative thinking that transcends the ordinary and puts the development of cutting-edge defence solutions in the fast-lane.

Contact us to talk about accelerating your journey to a successful defence.